Educational attainment indicator

Waikato progress indicators – Tupuranga Waikato
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Waikato Progress Indicators - Tupuranga Waikato

Image - university gradutes EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT

WPI - no change icon     NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE

(Note: trend indicator above is relative to 2009 WPI baseline year.)

Educational attainment levels for people in the Waikato region peaked in 2016 and have fallen since 2021. They are now down to levels last seen more than a decade ago.

This indicator is the percentage of school leavers with NCEA level 2 or above, from Ministry of Education records.

Why is this indicator important?

Upper secondary school qualifications, currently NCEA level 2, serve as the foundation for higher (post-secondary) learning and training opportunities as well as the preparation for direct entry into the labour market. Those that leave education early with few qualifications are at much greater risk of unemployment or vulnerability in the labour force, and are more likely to have lower incomes, and fewer employment opportunities than those with higher qualifications.

Educational attainment

 

 

Year  Percentage of school leavers with NCEA Level 2 or above
2009 64.2
2010 66.4
2011 69.5
2012 72.0
2013 73.6
2014 76.1
2015 77.6
2016 79.6
2017 78.6
2018 79.2
2019 78.4
2020 80.0
2021 78.6
2022 73.4
2023 70.6

 Note: Historical time series retrospectively updated each year by Ministry of Education.

What is this indicator telling us? 

  • Over the period 2009 to 2016, there was a strong upward trend in the percentage of school leavers with NCEA level 2 or above.
  • During the 2020, 2021 and 2022 schooling years, the Covid-19 pandemic brought about unprecedented disruptions to learning at both a national and local level. To help mitigate the effects of these disruptions, the Ministry of Education provided a range of learning resources and technology services to support senior secondary students.
  • In 2023, 70.6% of Waikato region school leavers attained NCEA Level 2 or above. This is a 9.4 percentage point decrease from the 2020 peak. The rate is now close to where it last was in the early 2010s.
  • A higher percentage of females than males achieve NCEA level 2 or above, and educational attainment remains lower for Māori school leavers compared to other ethnic groups at the regional and national level.
  • There is considerable variation throughout the Waikato region for this indicator. In 2023, the percentage of school leavers with NCEA level 2 or above ranged from around 60 per cent in the Waikato District, South Waikato District and Waitomo District up to 74 per cent in the Hauraki District. These local level figures can change considerably from year to year.
  • Similar educational attainment patterns are evident from the 2023 Census results for the overall population aged 15 years and over. Amongst all adults in the Waikato region, around 83% had at least a high school qualification (ranging from 75% in Waitomo District to 86% in Hamilton City).
  • According to latest 2022 results from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), New Zealand’s reading, mathematical and science literacy scores have declined over the long term. Despite this, New Zealand’s education levels remain above the OECD average. Between 2018 and 2022, OECD average educational levels declined by at least as much as the decline in New Zealand scores.
  • Latest results from the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS) show that for New Zealand’s Year 5 students in 2020, their attitudes to reading and their reading confidence both appear to have somewhat waned over the five-year period since 2015. According to the PIRLS results, Year 5 students were more positive about their digital prowess than they were about their reading.
  • Latest results from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) show that for New Zealand’s Year 5 students in 2023:
    • The average mathematics achievement was higher than that of the students in 1994 but similar to more recent years.
    • The average science achievement was similar to 1994 but higher than the mean science score for each of the last four cycles since 2006.
    • Although New Zealand’s mean achievement in mathematics and science has increased, many other countries have increased by more.

DATA SOURCE AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION

Data are updated annually on the Ministry of Education’s Education Counts website (school leavers).

Update details: Updated online in July each year. Data for each year may be retrospectively updated to account for prior school leavers returning to get qualifications; data quality improvements; and changes to data methodology and definitions.

Customised data request requirements: Nil

DATA AVAILABILITY – OTHER THAN WAIKATO REGION:

Territorial Authority (TA) disaggregation: Yes 

Other regions: Yes 

New Zealand: Yes 

Other countries/ Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): Comparable survey data on learning trends in young people are available including the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS) and Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS). Data on the academic attainment level of the adult population are less comparable between countries.